Divisional Playoff Preview! Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh!

Forging Steel is back to bring you the divisional round preview! Bring on JACKSONVILLE!! Here’s the rundown:

Offense: 

Use TE motions to get the defense off balance. Watching film of the 49ers victory vs the Jags in which they put up 44 points on their vaunted defense, they caught Jacksonville in multiple switches on defense. By flipping the tight end, the Jaguars D was caught multiple times flipping their D-line and linebackers. As the game progressed, they adjusted and began just sliding their linebackers to the flip. By forcing the defense to adjust their game plan, this can start Pittsburgh’s upper hand.

Get the defense running. And I’m not meaning the Todd Haley way of getting the defense running, throwing screens out to the WR that only gain 1 or 2 yards. In those situations, the D-line has free run and while yes, they are running, they are not fighting through blocks. Stretch plays, though ineffective for the most part vs a stout D-line, get them fighting to run side to side and allows the offensive line to tire them out. It also sets up the next option.

Crossing routes and the rollout/boot game. Big Ben isn’t as young and athletic as he used to be, but this coincides with the stretch game, and gets the Jags weakness, their outside backers, into having to make decisions in coverage vs QB.

Overloading the zone. Tennessee and San Fransisco did this very well vs the Jags in their victories. They forced Jacksonville’s core (ILB and safety’s) to cover high and low routes in the zone, which allowed for open receivers in the middle of the field. Jacksonvilll’es defense has few weaknesses, but in coverage, they definitely aren’t as strong on the inside as they are on the outside.

Besides these adjustments, Pittsburgh’s offense was efficient in week 5 vs this defense. If Pittsburgh can sprinkle in some of these types of varieties, they can find even more success than they had previously. I don’t see Big Ben throwing 5 interceptions again, and the other weapons on offense have developed far more than they had in week 5 (Juju, Bryant, McDonald). Look for Pittsburgh to utilize those 3 in the middle of the field throughout the contest.

Defense:

Jacksonville has used a very basic offense to attack teams throughout the year, allowing their big trio of backs (Fournette, Yeldon, and Ivory) to run teams into submission. Pittsburgh’s defense has struggled vs. the run the back half of the season, but look for them to play well vs the Jags this time around.

Though Pittsburgh will feel the loss of 50 (as they have ever since the injury), the Jags running game isn’t quite like what has given Pittsburgh most of its problems. Quicker backs have been the bane of Pittsburgh’s existence when they have given up big games. Fournette’s big game vs them was half off of one run (90 of 181 yards). Before that carry they had held Fournette to 3.6 YPC. The D-line will be responsible for attempting to help take that away. Jacksonville doesn’t attempt to stretch the field with their run game which plays into Pittsburgh’s favor. Without the normal speed at ILB, Pittsburgh needs Heyward and Co. to eat up and through blockers to slow Fournette down before he can get a head of steam.

Bortles’ run game. Bortles can flash a few times throughout a game as a passer, but those are few and far between. What everyone witnessed last week was his athleticism to create plays in the run game. He won’t break a game-changing TD, but he can pick up a few first downs to keep drives alive. Pittsburgh needs to maintain some integrity to it’s pass rush lanes and not give him a crease to escape to. I’m sure Jacksonville will run some designed QB keepers as well.

Most of the game will hinge off Pittsburgh’s D-line. Their D-line is superior in talent to what Jacksonville’s offensive line brings to the table, but they have to be careful with how Jacksonville will use their talent to help in their deception. Reads and screens will all be utilized against them to combat their aggressiveness. Pittsburgh is lead by smart players on their front, and I don’t see it being a problem for them.

I think Pittsburgh gets the win 27-17

Dallas @ Pittsburgh Game Preview

After what we saw from Pittsburgh’s offense this past week, Steelers fans don’t have much to look forward to as the 7-1 Cowboys come in to town. Dallas plays a ball control offense, with the best offensive line in the NFL leading the way for rookie Ezekiel Elliott. Elliott’s physical style of running opens up the passing game for fellow rookie Dak Prescott and his uncanny above the shoulders style of play. The rookie duo is playing like veterans, making smart football decisions all over the field, and in late game situations.

The scariest matchup this week will be Dallas’ running game vs Pittsburgh’s rush defense. Pittsburgh has not been very good against the run the last few weeks, and will face the #1 ranked rushing team in the NFL. Pittsburgh will need a good rotation on the D-line to be able to stay fresh as Dallas will look to wear them out all game long. The defense as a whole will need to make sure they bring it every time they go to tackle Elliott. He is a physical back who likes to deliver the blow when it comes to contact, and has excellent balance to keep moving forward after contact. Gang tackling will go a long way to slowing him down as well, as he is a shifty runner who knows how to work angles vs oncoming defenders. Elliott’s biggest weak spot this season has been fumbling. Pittsburgh will need to force him to put the ball on the ground at least once to allow their offense to try and build a lead.

Cole Beasley is the toughest matchup for Pittsburgh’s defensive backs. Dez Bryant is who he is, but Beasley is their move the chains player. He has become Prescott’s security blanket and he looks for him a lot on 3rd downs. He is the normal slot back that has given Pittsburgh problems in the past. Short with great change of direction, he get’s open quickly and has a high football IQ to find the first down.

Pittsburgh’s “vaunted” offense will need to control the ball. This will go a long way to Pittsburgh being able to stay in the game. Dallas has a banged up secondary and plays ball control offense, wearing down defenses as the game goes on, If Pittsburgh can control the clock and keep the defense rested, they give themselves a chance. Big Ben will have to get back to being Big Ben. Last week he was not sharp on his reads and it showed. Once he began spreading the ball out and using all his weapons, the offense came to life. Bell and Brown will be who they always are, but Rogers, James, Coates, and others have the ability to make plays as well, and they need to make them. To do that, Ben has to give them the opportunity to. Minus change of pace opportunities and when/if they are playing with a lead, I would love to see Pittsburgh’s offense string drives together. They have seemed very reliant on splash plays this season, and less so on driving the ball. Pittsburgh needs to keep its defense fresh. That requires ball control offense.

This game has the ability to be a classic like those of Dallas/Pittsburgh past. But it depends which Pittsburgh team we get. They have been very inconsistent all year, looking unbeatable, and looking like one of the worst teams in the league. I’m hoping this weeks practice was focused on sharpening technique and instilling more discipline in a team that has been trending downward in that category. Penalties and very correctable mistakes have cost this team. But those mistakes have been probably the biggest consistent trait of Pittsburgh this season (averaging over 12 missed tackles per game this season). When they have shown improvement (see Kansas City) in tackling, and showed passion to being the team people think they should be, Pittsburgh is a force. But when they are off they are bad. No other way to put it. Just bad. Let’s hope Pittsburgh comes out with a renewed focus.

Prediction:

Pittsburgh will come out of the gates with a good fire, and show improvement (especially on offense) from last week. Pittsburgh’s defense will struggle early, as Dallas’ power rushing game is hard to prepare for. Elliott breaks a couple 15-25 yard run’s in the first half. Pittsburgh’s defense will settle down in the 2nd quarter, but will begin to wear down in the 4th. Big Ben is able to mount a Pittsburgh comeback in the 2nd half but in the end it will fall short. Pittsburgh’s players will be too tired at the end of the game to make key stops on defense that would give them the ball back.

Dallas-31 – Pittsburgh 26

Boy do I hope I’m wrong.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

This post will be pretty short and sweet due to a long work day today and tiredness because of said work day. But nonetheless, it is BALTIMORE! So this game will be a hard-hitting, nerve-racking game. Both teams are coming off of a bye week, so both will be getting some players back from injury. The biggest question for Pittsburgh is obvious, will Ben play? And that is the biggest factor for both teams in this game. If Ben plays, that means Pittsburgh would have an advantage, but I believe that advantage isn’t because he is amazing, because Baltimore has been able to slow him down at times, but I think it will add to Pittsburgh’s offense because of his abilities to get his playmakers the ball. Le’Veon Bell will be the biggest difference maker in this game. He is a matchup nightmare, and will probably face CJ Mosely all day, which is a tough matchup. But if Mosely is focused on Bell, and two defenders focus on Antonio Brown, I believe that will set up Pittsburgh’s depth. Baltimore bracketed AB a lot in last years late season victory, and I expect to see them do that a lot in this matchup as well.

Baltimore’s defense has been one of the best in the NFL at keeping opponents from putting up points and has been in every loss this season, usually having an opportunity late in the game to get the victory. But in their 4 losses, Joe Flacco has been unable to get them that final score.  I don’t see this game going much differently. It is Pittsburgh and Baltimore. I see a tight game, that comes down to the 4th quarter and forces Pittsburgh’s defense to come up with a stop late in the game, and I am not sure how I feel about that. Pittsburgh’s defense should be closer to full strength than the previous two games, so I do have a little more faith in them, but it still not something that makes me feel good about Pittsburgh coming out victorious. But I do believe Pittsburgh’s defense will surprise me. I think Pittsburgh is able to pull out this victory because of the versatility of Le’Veon Bell. That is something that was missing from last years loss late in the season. DeAngelo Williams is a very good backup and gives Pittsburgh great production when Bell is out, but the explosiveness from Bell in the receiving game will be the difference maker. Bell can pick up 5 where Williams gets 2. Those plays will make the difference and keep Pittsburgh’s offense on the field a little longer.

Pittsburgh 27- Baltimore 21

New England @ Pittsburgh Game Preview

With Pittsburgh’s loss to the 2-4 Dolphins (1-4 entering the game), Pittsburgh has now lost 14 games over 6 seasons to teams with a combined record of 25-87. The Steelers were favored in every game. Why they play down to their level of competition, I do not know. But let’s look on the bright side, a 5-1 Patriots team comes to town this Sunday, which means we should see a Steelers team that plays up to par with what we, the fans, are used to. The bad news, is that a 5-1 Patriots team comes to town this weekend. A team that has historically had Pittsburgh’s number, and that continuously shreds Pittsburgh’s defense. A defense that already ranks near the bottom in terms of pass defense in the NFL. Oh and Pittsburgh will be without Ben Roethlisberger… this has all the makings to be a fun week for Steelers fans.

New England has a TE loaded passing attack featuring two premiere tight ends in Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski. Throw in Julian Edelman in the slot, Chris Hogan outside, and James White coming out of the backfield, Pittsburgh has a lot of weapons to cover with a defense that is dealing with a lot of injuries all over. With Cam Heyward out, Pittsburgh wasn’t able to pressure the passer or stop the run in Miami. Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh’s most athletic linebacker and biggest playmaker on defense could be back after being questionable last week (though I would rather see him sit out to get fully healthy with a bye week following this game). New England can also throw bruising running back LeGarrette Blount at a Pittsburgh defense that looked vulnerable to big powerful running backs vs Miami. This matchup is not what Pittsburgh’s defense wants to see as they try to figure out what their identity is going to be. Tackling has been a consistent weakness throughout the season, and the whole “bend but don’t break” defense that they have played last season and most of this season will not work vs the Brady led Patriots. Brady is too good, and will take the underneath hitches that Pittsburgh gives up all day, forcing Pittsburgh’s defenders to tackle in space and limit yards. This would be a great time for Pittsburgh to use what was seen as an Artie Burns strength coming out of college, jamming at the line of scrimmage, to attempt to throw off the timing of New England’s offense.

On defense I expect the Patriots to force Landry Jones to beat them. They will key on Le”Veon Bell and take away Pittsburgh’s strength. With Ben Roethlisberger out for most likely 2-4 weeks, Bell will need to be the workhorse of the offense. Bell has only faced a Bill Belichick defense one time in his career, during his rookie season in 2013. Bell averaged 4.63 yards per carry, gaining 74 yards on 16 carries, while catching 4 passes for 65 yards. I expected to see DeAngelo Williams on the field, in a two running back system this weekend, but he is out with a knee injury. Fitzgerald Toussaint will be the number 2, and I would think Pittsburgh could activate Karlos Williams to the 53 man roster to give them 3 running backs, but I don’t think his knowledge of the playbook would give Pittsburgh much of a boost. Antonio Brown was less effective last year when Big Ben was out (17 catches on 31 targets for 235 yards and 0 TD’s last season. 82.7% catch percentage in first 3 games with Ben. 54.5% without Ben), but Jones was more effective at getting the ball to the star wideout than Vick was (6 catches for 124 yards vs. KC last season). Brown will most likely face bump and run coverage from Malcolm Butler, playing him in a trail technique to stop the back shoulder fade that has been Brown’s best route so far this season, similar to how Byron Maxwell played him this past week, forcing Jones to try to throw over the top to get the ball to him. If he has any success with that, look for the Patriots to throw a safety over the top every once in a while to make Jones shy away. New England will challenge the rest of Pittsburgh’s receivers to make plays for 60 minutes to attempt to keep Pittsburgh in the game.

PREDICTION:

Unfortunately, even though I do have faith in my team to play better than a lot of pundits believe they will, I do not think they will be able to keep up with the Patriots. Pittsburgh will struggle to maintain an identity on offense after the Patriots adjust to what they are going to do. I expect a lot of touches for Bell, and some forced plays to AB, while trying to get him involved early with screens. Pittsburgh will struggle to stop the multi-faceted offense of the Patriots. Brady will take the underneath throws (especially those on the outside hitch routes) while hitting his tight ends in the seams. When those aren’t available, look for White coming out of the backfield. Pittsburgh could see a boost to their defense with Ryan Shazier possibly returning to the field, but I don’t see it being enough to boost Pittsburgh’s pass rush, especially when Brady is so good about getting the ball out of his hands so quickly. Pittsburgh keeps it decently close, all that fans can ask without Ben Roethlisberger and dealing with the injury bug the Steelers have been dealing with.

Pittsburgh – 16 New England  – 31

Jets @ Pittsburgh: Game Preview

Which Steelers team will show up? Being a home game, I hope the same team that took the field last week to prove a point.

Pittsburgh comes in with a slew of injuries (9 players ruled out, 4 being starters). Ryan Shazier and Robert Golden headline the defensive injuries. Along the offensive line, Ramon Foster will return, but Marcus Gilbert, Ryan Harris, and Cody Wallace are all out.

The Jets are dealing with some injuries of their own, as Eric Decker, Onachie (Quincy) Enunwa, and Darrelle Revis all listed on the injury report, as either doubtful or out.

Pittsburgh will have a tough go in the running game this week, as they go against the 2nd ranked rushing defense in the NFL. The Jets defense is ranked 16th overall, but 21st in scoring. They have been sabotaged by their own offense, that is leading the league in giveaways, with 13. The Jets formidable defensive line proves to be the strength of the team, and helps lead the charge, only allowing 3.1 yards per rush, as well as ranking 7th in the NFL with 11 sacks. The defensive line being responsible for 8 of those 11 sacks.

If Pittsburgh can keep the Jets defensive line at bay with an offensive line that is struggling with injuries throughout, they will be able to exploit a pass defense that ranks 26th in the NFL. The Jets are allowing a league worst yards per pass attempt at 9.7 yards per attempt, while also allowing the 31st ranked big play, giving up 13 plays of over 20 yards. The pass defense also allows an NFL worst 72 percent completion percentage. This should all be highlighted by the fact that their top corner, Darrelle Revis, will be fighting through a hamstring injury if he plays at all.

Pittsburgh will face a tough matchup on the defensive side of the ball vs dual threat running back Matt Forte. Pittsburgh has struggled throughout the season covering running backs coming out of the backfield, look for the Jets to use him on a lot more routes than his 11 receptions so far this year. Bilal Powell has been a good change of pace back for the running game as well, with a 7.6 yards per carry average.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a string of bad games the last two weeks, throwing 9 interceptions in his previous two games. He will be facing a Pittsburgh defense that is trying to find its footing defending the pass and he should be able to find some success. Ross Cockrell will most likely line up across Brandon Marshall to limit his receptions. Without Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa, the Jets offense should be considerably hindered. Pittsburgh will need to focus on Forte and Marshall, the main weapons for this offense, to be able to keep them from putting points on the board and get the victory.

PREDICTION:

Pittsburgh will struggle because of the injuries along the offensive line. But they should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Jets offense is hindered by injuries to the starting slot and #2 receiver. The Jets have struggled with turnovers this year, leading to lopsided losses even though their defensive line is one of the top in the NFL. Pittsburgh will look to exploit their pass defense with quick passes and screens to make the d-line run and wear them out by the time the 4th quarter comes around. Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball enough to win the battle of field position and put enough points on the board to get the victory.

Pittsburgh 27- NY Jets 17

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh Preview:

Let’s hope Pittsburgh can clear its head after last weeks debacle that was called a football game. Pittsburgh played extremely poor in every facet of the game in a team loss that showed this team has a lot of work to do. It is only week 4, so there is plenty of time to right the ship. With a tough slate of games the next two weeks, Pittsburgh will need to not drop to 2-3.

Kansas City enters the game at 2-1, with wins against the Jets and Chargers, and a loss to the Texans. They are a very efficient team under Andy Reid that has a defensive mindset, and an offense that can attack in multiple ways. The Chiefs could get a boost on the offensive side of the ball as Jamal Charles will be playing in his first game of the year after tearing his ACL last season. Last week vs the Jets, Kansas City forced 8 turnovers as the defense swarmed all over the field, grabbing 6 interceptions, and forcing 2 fumbles.

Pittsburgh comes in to the game not only dealing with the 34-3 loss last week hanging over their heads, Pittsburgh also lost Ryan Shazier, Ramon Foster, Eli Rogers, and Robert Golden last week and they will most likely be out this week as well. It will be tough sledding for Pittsburgh to bounce back vs a tough Kansas City team that beat them last year by 10 points without Big Ben, and has always given Pittsburgh a tough game. I always feel this is a dangerous stat, but Pittsburgh is 10-4 against Kansas City at home, winning the last 5, and a perfect 3-0 so far at Heinz Field.

In last years matchup, Pittsburgh was able to rush the ball effectively, averaging 7.2 yards per carry. This is surprising because Kansas City should have been gearing up to stop Le’Veon Bell with Ben Roethlisberger out due to injury. If Pittsburgh can carry over some of the success they had last season rushing the ball with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger, they should be able to keep their defense off the field with some ball control, while being able to keep the defense off-balance with the run and pass. Kansas City ranks 24th in the NFL vs the run so far this year, allowing 123 yards per game. Look for Pittsburgh, even with a banged up offensive line, to try to exploit this matchup with Bell and Williams. I could see potentially 28-30 touches for Bell, and 12-15 touches for Williams.

Antonio Brown will face a tough matchup this week vs Marcus Peters who already has 4 interceptions this season, 2 each in the last 2 games. He finished last season with 8 interceptions and is a great man defender. He has great ability to read a receiver and has great hands, something most DB’s don’t have. The Kansas City pass defense overall is above average, ranking 11th in the NFL, only allowing 225 yards per game, while only allowing 16.3 points per game (6th in the NFL).  They have been holding opposing QB’s to 56.6% completion percentage as well. Last year they were able to grab 2 interceptions of Landry Jones, while limiting him to 209 yards passing, with Antonio Brown having 124 of those yards on 6 catches.

Pittsburgh’s defense so far this season has been awful when it comes to sack numbers. Their one and only sack of the season came late in the first game of the season and that is it. When I try to justify it with QB hurries, Pittsburgh is still right in the middle of the pack with 15 hurries. They have not been able to produce much pressure on the opposing Quarterback and it has shown in the results vs Pittsburgh. They rank 30th in the NFL, allowing 332 yards per game, and a 65% completion percentage. The only positive to Pittsburgh’s defense so far this season has been its 3rd down defense. It has been very efficient at getting an opponent off the field once they can actually get them to a 3rd down at 30.6% 4rd down efficiency.

Kansas City’s big offensive threat Travis Kelce, a tight end of course, will be the main focus of Pittsburgh’s defense. It will be a lot more difficult to stop Kelce this year as Ryan Shazier, Pittsburgh’s most athletic linebacker, will be out this week. Pittsburgh in the previous 2 matchups vs Kelce have been able to limit his damage, but will face a tougher task this season due to injuries.

PREDICTION:

I don’t really want to predict after last week. I started off the season pretty solid with my predictions, but last week put a pretty bad taste in my mouth, though it did that to all Steelers fans.

But I do believe Pittsburgh should bounce back this week. I like to think Pittsburgh will come in to this primetime game with a fire lit under them after a dismal showing last week. They should be able to take advantage offensively, while the defense holds on for dear life (zero confidence in them after last weeks poor showing). Big Ben will try to feed Wheaton early to try to build his confidence back up, so I look for a lot of Bell and Wheaton early for this Pittsburgh offense. The defense will supposedly be trying some new looks in the backfield, and I look forward to possibly seeing some more Artie Burns. Kansas City will try to dink and dunk down the field, similar to Philly last week, but Alex Smith doesn’t present the same challenge that Wentz did. The game will come down to what defense can make the most red zone stops, as that has been the calling card of both teams. I believe Pittsburgh has more weapons on offense, and will be able to win more of those matchups. Pittsburgh 34- Kansas City 21

 

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia Preview and Prediction

Big Ben and company travel across the state this week to take on Rookie Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams come in to the game with 2-0 records, playing very well to start the season.

Philadelphia starts the season 2-0 for the 10th time since 1960, beating the Cleveland Browns and the Chicago Bears, two teams that are not seen as powerhouses by any means in the NFL, but wining with a rookie quarterback in this league can be difficult sometimes. Philadelphia passed those first two tests with flying colors. Carson Wentz has played extremely well for a rookie, completing 43 of 71 passes for 468 yards and 3 TD’s. To put that in perspective, Ben Roethlisberger has completed 46 of 74 passes for 559 yards and 6 TD’s (also 3 interceptions). Granted Roethlisberger played in sloppy conditions last week that didn’t help his two interceptions, but Wentz has played turnover free so far this season. Above the neck he has been all the Philadelphia coaching staff could ask for. After watching last weeks game against Chicago though, it seemed he was seeing some very mundane and simple blitz packages. Chicago throughout the game sent 4 man pressures, and very rarely 5 man pressures. Pittsburgh has been known to pester rookie quarterbacks with complex zone blitzing schemes, but so far this season hasn’t shown/used very many diverse blitzes, instead allowing 7 players to drop into coverage. Pittsburgh may throw in a blitz or two on money down situations (3rd down) but they have been adept at efficiently getting off the field so far this season (Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down efficiency), while Philadelphia ranks 28th in the NFL at converting on 3rd downs.

Where Philadelphia has won games is on the defensive side of the football. Fletcher Cox has been a dominant force on the defensive line (ranked 2nd among DT in QB pressures last season). But beside him is Brandon Graham, who has been the most pass rusher so far this season for 4-3 DE’s (according to Pro Football Focus). The D-line of Philadelphia is its biggest strength. It ranks 4th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate (which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent), and ranks 7th in the NFL at stuffing run plays. Where Philadelphia’s run defense gets significantly weaker is at the 2nd level, where it ranks 29th in the NFL at stopping the run. Brandon Graham (#3 ranked DE on PFF, 4 QB hurries this season, 2 sacks, 2 run stuffs) will go up against Marcus Gilbert (#7 Ranked OT) in one the most important matchups of the day. Pittsburgh’s offensive line will be tested. But they held up against a significant test last week, even though the rain helped to calm the push a defensive line could get. Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks 4th in pass protection, so this really will be a battle of attrition for both teams.

Keys to the game:

On offense, Pittsburgh will need to keep Philadelphia’s dominant defensive line off-balance. Pittsburgh’s O-line has been playing very efficiently, with crafty patience by DeAngelo Williams. I think he will need to be a little more assertive in the run game this week, as Philadelphia’s D-line will bring hard pressure from the backside on zone running plays, where Williams likes to cut back. Antonio Brown will look to bounce back, after a statistically poor week last week (though I believe that was more the weather/Big Ben’s inaccuracies doing last week, minus Brown’s drop). Philly has been solid vs the pass this season but does not boast one dominant player in their secondary. This is where Pittsburgh’s O-line will need to shine, to give Ben enough time to find his playmakers to carve up a secondary that hasn’t been tested consistently to this point this season.

On defense, Pittsburgh will need to stop an efficient passer in Wentz, that I believe will utilize one of Pittsburgh’s biggest weaknesses, the flats and covering the running back. Wentz has a strong-arm and can zip the ball out to short hitches all day. Pittsburgh has always been known to allow the underneath pass. Look for Philly to try to get Wentz in a rhythm early with those types of passes. Wentz will also utilize his check down to the running back often, not so much because of Pittsburgh’s inefficiency at covering it, but more so because Darren Sproles is a gifted runner in open space if he gets any room. I think Ross Cockrell will shadow Jordan Matthews throughout the game, and look to limit the damage he does. Pittsburgh’s stout running defense should be able to stifle Philly’s inconsistent run game, and make Philly attack through the air. Last week Philly’s receivers dropped a lot of passes for Wentz, they will look to make up for that.

Jordan Berry was a key contributor last week in the punting game, consistently pinning the Bengals deep in their own territory. His net punting ranks him 7th in the NFL, but his consistency in putting the ball where it needs to be so far this season has been a big upgrade to the last. He is really helping Pittsburgh swing the field position game. Chris Boswell has been consistent when called upon so far this season, going 2 for 2 on field goals, while a perfect 8 for 8 on extra points. Through 12 kickoffs this season he has only allowed 1 return, consistently making teams take a knee after putting the kick either deep in the end zone or through the end zone.

PREDICTION:

Philadelphia’s defense is solid. Pittsburgh’s offense is explosive. I believe Pittsburgh’s offensive consistency will get the better of Philly’s defense more than not, and Pittsburgh will be able to break through a tough scoring defense to be able to get multiple touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s defense will give up yards through the air like it always does, but will again stifle the run. Once the opponent gets into the red zone, Pittsburgh has capitalized on keeping them out of the end zone. Look for Wentz to add a different dimension with his running abilities in the redzone to get a score on Pittsburgh’s defense, and Darren Sproles could have some big gains receiving. But Pittsburgh stops Philly more than not.

Pittsburgh 31- Philadelphia 20

Bengals @ Steelers: Prediction

Rivalry games are the most difficult. No one predicted Baltimore would smack Pittsburgh in the mouth last year in 20-17 loss when Pittsburgh was on the cusp of the playoffs and the Ravens were just trying to stay as healthy as possible by the end of the season. But that is AFC North football.

On Offense, Pittsburgh has some new weapons. Martavis Bryant being out shouldn’t be a big issue, as he only had 49 receiving yards in the two regular season matchups, and 29 yards (albeit plus a touchdown on a good grab) in the playoffs. He never shined in these matchups, which was his biggest knock. Eli Rogers and Sammie Coats step in, and possibly Markus Wheaton, who is questionable at this moment. DeAngelo Williams will be as reliable as always, but this defense will make the yards hard to come by. Money downs (3rd down) will be tough, and the most efficient team on offense and defense will hold the advantage. Antonio Brown and Eli Rogers will be key on those money downs, but also look for Jesse James, who made some plays last week, but most of his catches were called back because of penalties elsewhere.

On Defense, Pittsburgh must find a way to not allow AJ Green to do too much damage. Containing him is they key to slowing down this offense, as he is Andy Dalton’s go to. Brandon LaFell gives them a solid number 2 receiver, and look for rookie Tyler Boyd to be on the field to try to stretch a secondary that is seen as Pittsburgh’s major weakness. Giovanni Brenard is always a threat as the 3rd down back, but Ryan Shazier, if he is able to play, has been Pittsburgh’s answer in that scenario. This game will be decided on adjustments, and who can find and exploit a weakness.

Pittsburgh hasn’t had too much luck when it comes to defending their home field vs Rivals for some reason. They always seem to win when they are on the road vs Baltimore and Cincinnati. But I believe Pittsburgh will have enough to squeek by in this matchup. Eli Rogers will provide a weapon that Cincinnati hasn’t seen, and is a more elusive slot than what Markus Wheaton is. He has better athletic ability and has already shown a good raport with Ben. DeAngelo Williams will provide some pass catching out of the backfield and will put the offense in good situations when they have a long down situation. Pittsburgh’s defense will come up with a big stop late to put the nail in the coffin for the home crowd. 

Pittsburgh 23- Cincinnati 17

Bengals @ Steelers Preview: pt2

DEFENSE

DE- Carlos Dunlap, Michael Johnson

DT- Domata Peko, Geno Atkins

OLB- Karlos Dansby, Vincent Rey

ILB- Rey Maualuga

CB- Dre Kirkpatrick, Adam Jones

Safety- Shawn Williams, George Iloka

What they showed us in Week 1:

Physicality. That is the first thing that popped into my head while watching the game film vs. the Jets. Though they have lost some of the depth and veterans they had last season, they still bring the physical nature that has made this rivalry so nasty lately. Reggie Nelson is gone (I’m sure all Pittsburgh fans, and Ben Roethlisberger, are all happy about that).

The Bengals were proficient on 3rd downs, holding NY to 4/12 on the day. They are very good from the front seven to the back 4. Not many weak spots among the position groups.

Geno Atkins was a monster, posting 4 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and two quarterback pressures. Atkins seems to have returned to his 2012 form, as one of the best defensive tackles in football. Last year he finished the season with 82 pressures, second most to J.J. Watt.

Geno Atkins has been playing very well since he has made a full recovery from his knee injury. He recorded 2 sacks and 6 tackles last season in 3 games vs. Pittsburgh. Atkins led the league in QB Hurries (according to Sporting Charts) with 36 hurries last season. That is an astounding stat coming from a defensive tackle. After Fletcher Cox with 33, the next closest D-lineman had 23. Pittsburgh should be chomping at the bit, having Maurkice Pouncey back to have a Pro-Bowler vs Pro-Bowler matchup. Pouncey and Decastro will have to communicate and have their technique on point to stuff this dominant pass rusher.

Cincinnati’s pass defense finished 18th in the league last year vs. the pass, allowing 245 yards per game. They also lost Reggie Nelson in the offseason, the league leader in interceptions, who picked off Big Ben 3 times last year, and have a new starter in place in Shawn Williams. They showed improvement in their first game this season, holding Ryan Fitzpatrick to 19 of 35 passes, for 188 yards, a 5.4 yard per play average. Though it is only one game, they looked to have good communication and did not show many breakdowns. Shawn Williams was a backup for them last year and steps into the starter role with experience in the defense. They will lay the wood on opposing receivers and will try to bring the physicality in this budding rivalry. 

Where Pittsburgh may be able to take advantage is in the run game. Matt Forte and the New York Jets were able to keep the defense off-balance with a running game that racked up 152 yards, with a 5.1 yard per carry average. Pittsburgh averaged 4.9 yards per carry vs. the Redskins, and was able to pound the ball at will in the second half of the game to control the clock. DeAngelo Williams will be the biggest key to this game, and will allow Pittsburgh’s offense to maintain a balanced approach. The Bengals know Pittsburgh’s offensive weapons well, and have had success slowing it down. In the first meeting last year in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati held Ben Roethlisberger to 262 passing yards on 38 of 45 passing, but threw 3 interceptions.Williams was held to 71 rushing yards rushing, but on 9 carries, and had 39 receiving yards. In their second meeting, Roethlisberger was held to 282 yards, while Williams was still kept in check with 76 yards. When they met again in the playoffs, Roethlisberger, though nursing an injured shoulder late in the victory, only managed 229 yards, while Pittsburgh’s rushing attack was led by Jordan Todman, who managed 65 yards.  Those are pedestrian numbers compared to the numbers the Steelers offense had posted throughout the season. Cincinnati plays Pittsburgh very tough, and has players/matchups that make offense difficult. This will most likely be a low scoring, close game, as most of them are. 

Bengals @ Steelers Preview pt.1

The Bengals remind me of the Steelers back in the 2005-2009 timeline. Built through the draft and key free agents, good depth throughout the depth chart, and built to be a playoff competitor year in and year out. They don’t quite have the talent level of those Pittsburgh teams, but they are very good and will be a tough early season test for Pittsburgh.

OFFENSE

QB- Andy Dalton

RB- Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard

WR- A.J. Green, Brandon LaFell, Tyler Boyd

TE- Tyler Croft, C.J. Uzomah

LT- Andrew Whitworth

LG- Clint Boling

C- Russell Bodine

RG- Kevin Zeitler

RT- Cedric Ogbuehi

What they showed in Week 1:

A.J. Green is still one of the best wide outs in the game. He showed that last week, as he put up 12 catches for 180 yards and a TD vs. Darrelle Revis. They used him in a variety of positions and plays. They will throw deep to him, as well as use him on tunnel screens. The Bengals used a variety of methods to create mismatches. On his 54 yard touchdown, the Bengals lined him up in the slot, only to have the outside receiver motion in, causing the defense to shift. Green automatically had inside leverage on the outside corner (Revis) who had to shift in. The offense then ran a post dig combination from the same side of the field. The safety was caught flat-footed, watching the dig, which allowed Green to be one on one with Revis. A.J. Green is a master at reading the ball in the air and will win that deep ball over most defensive backs. Pittsburgh will have its hands full trying to keep Green from making big plays.

Andy Dalton was beat up all game. The NY Jets managed 7 sacks on the game, mostly from the D-line. But NY also boasts one the top (if not THE top) defensive line in the NFL, that can create pressure with itself, not having to use creative blitzes, though they do. Pittsburgh does not have the same talent along the defensive line that the Jets do. Heyward, Tuitt, and Hargrave are very talented themselves, but not to that level. Pittsburgh will have to mix up the blitzes and exploit weaknesses they see in film to be able to get the same kind of pressure on Dalton.

Jeremy Hill looks explosive and powerful in his runs. He is a solid running back who will churn out the tough yards, and he showed that last week, even if his stat line didn’t look too impressive. His 12 yard touchdown run is a clear example of his power. Giovani Bernard provided a good change of pace, and averaged 5 yards a carry in week 1.

Brandon LaFell provided depth at the questionable WR2 position for the Bengals entering the season. After losing Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones in free agency, this was considered the Bengals biggest weak spot on offense going in to the season. LaFell caught 4 passes for 91 yards vs the NY Jets, averaging 22.8 yards per catch.

Andy Dalton knocked off any rust from missing the last 4 games of last season, finishing sharp, completing 23 of 30 passes for 366 yards and 1 TD. That stat line is impressive especially considering the amount of pressure he felt all day.

 

AJ Green, as always, will be the main weapon for Andy Dalton this week. Cincinnati’s offense showed that they want to focus on getting the ball into their playmakers hands, and he produced, with 15 yards per catch. They use the threat of Green’s speed to their benefit, as there is a lot of off coverage played on him, and hit him with a lot of short passes, and allow him to pick up yards after the catch. Green racked up 79 yards after catch, leading the league in week 1 for wide receivers. 9 of his 12 catches came on routes within the 0-10 yard range,  3 being screens. In Green’s previous 7 games vs. Pittsburgh, he has at least 5 catches per game. In 10 career regulat season games, Green has 69 receptions, on 123 targets (56%), for 937 yards, and 6 TD’s.

Pittsburgh was able to play well against Cincinnati’s offense last year, minus AJ Green, who gives most teams trouble. In the first matchup of last season, Dalton passed for 231 yards on 23- of 38 passing in a Cincinnati victory. Jeremy Hill was held to 60 yards on 15 carries. Pittsburgh’s victories against Cincinnati have always come down to winning the turnover battle. They always come in the game, but being able to make fewer mistakes in a rivalry game like this will be the biggest challenge. In the victory in Pittsburgh last season, Cincinnati turned the ball over twice, but Pittsburgh turned it over three times. The final score was only one possession. If Pittsburgh can force Dalton into mistakes, Pittsburgh’s offense and reliable kicker in Boswell should be able to take advantage.